2024 Election: Bawumia leads with 49.1% as Mahama trails with 45.8% – Latest research shows

Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the vice president and presidential candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), is leading with 49.1% in the upcoming 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections, according to research released today, November 21, 2024, by Professor Smart Sarpong, an associate professor of statistics at Kumasi Technical University.

John Mahama of the NDC, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s closest opponent, has 45.8% of the vote, while Nana Kwame Bediako is probably going to get 2.2%. However, Mr. John Alan John Kyeremateng is only expected to receive 1.2% of the vote, which would put him in fourth position.

The extensive survey, which had 99,355 respondents and was carried out over 4,272 communities in all 276 constituencies, demonstrates Dr. Bawumia’s distinct advantage in crucial areas including Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, and Western.

Mahama still has significant support in the other nine regions, but it is not enough to bridge the gap. The survey predicts a parliamentary majority for the NPP in addition to a resounding victory for Bawumia as president.

According to Professor Sarpong’s data, the NPP could win at least 148 seats in Parliament, of which 128 are deemed “safe.” 56 constituencies are still up for grabs, but the NDC is expected to hold 92 secure seats.

It is anticipated that the two major parties will split these battleground seats evenly, solidifying the NPP’s legislative majority.

According to Professor Sarpong, who gained national acclaim for his precise forecasts in the 2020 elections, voters have responded favorably to Bawumia’s leadership and the NPP’s political tactics.

According to his research, the party is expected to make substantial gains in Parliament as well as win a resounding presidential election.

The poll highlights rising support for the NPP with sixteen (16) days before election day, paving the way for a potentially game-changing election result.

“As of 16 November 2024 (4 weeks to elections), NPP’s Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia was in a 49.1% lead, followed by NDC’s Mr. John Mahama with 45.8%, Nana Kwame Bediako with 2.2%, and Mr. John Allan Kyeremateng with 1.2%,” Professor Sarpong noted in his analysis of his findings regarding the presidential elections.

“All other candidates put together obtained 1.7% of the votes. It is clear from this report that elections in 2024 can be won in the first round by only one of the two leading political parties, with the NPP having a higher chance of clinching a first-round victory.

“Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, and Western regions are the leading regions powering the NPPs with 49.1% lead. Bono East, Greater Accra, Northern, Oti, Savanna, Upper East, Upper West, Volta, and Western North regions are the leading regions powering the NDC’s 45.8%,’ Professor Sarpong pointed out.

“In the next 2 weeks to December 7th, political parties should guard against reverse invasion by working hard to consolidate all gains made in leading regions while seeking to improve in other regions. If all sleeping party agents and supporters should arise and get involved, there can be a 1-touch victory and spare the nation the stress of organizing a second round of elections,” Professor Smart Sarpong further indicated.

According to Professor Smart Sarpong’s analysis, as of November 16, 2024, four weeks prior to the elections, “NPPs lead in Parliamentary safe seats with 128 safe seats, followed by the NDC’s with 92 safe seats.” The NPP and NDC are expected to receive equal shares in the 56 remaining constituencies that are up for grabs.

“It is clear from this report that by the close of elections 2024, NPP shall secure NOT LESS THAN 148 SEATS in parliament. There were 6 competitive independent candidates in Sunyani East, Asanti Akyem Central, Asante Akyem North, La-Dade Kotopong, Suhum, and Agona West. None of the 6 competitive independent candidates secured enough votes to earn them the pass mark.

“All 276 constituency seats are winnable, but more energy is required in the 56 tight constituencies for parties who wish to win. List of the 56 and their likely winning party will be shared Only upon request via my email,” Professor Smart Sarpong added.

Read the details of the survey below:

Source: Ghanatodayonline.com