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Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has estimated that Baba Jamal’s support in the Ayawaso East NDC parliamentary primary will probably not surpass 38%, pointing to recent polling statistics and current voter behavior in the constituency.
As per the forecast, Hajia Amina Adam, the widow of the deceased Member of Parliament for Ayawaso East, Mahama Naser Toure, is clearly in the forefront with around 54% backing ahead of the elections set for Saturday, February 7.
Mr. Dankwah pointed out that even in the most advantageous circumstances for Baba Jamal, the information reveals a noteworthy disparity between the two top candidates, rendering a sudden late change in voter preference unlikely.
He stated that the prediction has an error margin of approximately 3.2%, which still keeps Hajia Amina Adam well in front, even at the closest point of the range
“We asked NDC members in our polls whether it was wrong for Hajia to contest, and 66% of NDC voters disagreed. This means they do not think she should be prevented from contesting. When we asked the delegates, 58% of them also disagreed.
“So both the delegates and the party faithful disagree with that call, which suggests that some people are pushing a narrative that is not selling, yet they keep promoting it.
“I think they miscalculated the dynamics of Ayawaso. The margin of error in my prediction is about 3.2%. Based on that, I project Hajia to win with about 54%, while Baba Jamal’s highest share will be around 38%,” he added.
Source: Ghanatodayonline.com
