According to a prediction made by Fitch Solutions, the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) will likely win the 2024 presidential election in Ghana.
“The rapid deterioration of economic conditions in 2022 and slow progress in the fight against perceived corruption – in a July 2022 Afrobarometer study, 85.0% of Ghanaians believed the government was doing a poor job in tackling corruption – will exacerbate anti-incumbency sentiment among the electorate,” the UK-based firm said in its analysis of “Positive Shift in Ghana’s Political Risk Profile Following IMF Programme Approval.”
The IMF has expressed reservations about President Nana Akufo-Addo’s flagship Free Senior High School Program (launched in 2017), labeling it as “poorly targeted,” according to Fitch Solutions.
“Potential modifications to the programme in order to rein in spending could weaken the NPP’s campaign agenda, increasing the chances of an NDC win” it said.
However, Fitch stated that “we believe that risks to Ghana’s IMF programme are limited,” adding that “current NDC leadership has expressed support for Ghana’s re-engagement with the IMF” and that “previous NDC governments have requested IMF loans” (Ghana’s 2015-2019 IMF programme was initiated under an NDC government).
Ghana’s score for “policy continuity” on the Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) was increased by Fitch from 62.5 to 70.0 out of 100.
According to the report, even if the government increased taxes in the first half of 2023, including income taxes and the VAT, “a more stable exchange rate, easing inflation, and a stronger external position will gradually normalize economic conditions.”
“We believe that this will lower protest activity in the second half of 223, after the number of protests and riots increased by 17.2% year-on-year in first-half of 2023. To reflect this, we have revised up the ‘social stability’ score in our Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) to 47.5 out of 100, from 40.0 previously (a higher score implies lower risk)”.
Ghana’s overall STPRI score increased from 59.4 to 63.1. The nation continues to outperform its peers in the region; Ghana’s STPRI score is 50.3, which indicates that political risks are still largely under control in Sub-Saharan Africa.